A Complete Time-Dependent Carrier-borne Epidemic Model

  • Gurprit Grover Department of Statistics, Delhi University, New Delhi, India.
  • Vajala Ravi Department of Statistics, Lady Shri Ram College, Delhi University, New Delhi, India.
  • Vishal Deo Department of Statistics, Ramjas College, Delhi University, New Delhi, India.
  • Chandra Bhan Yadav Department of Statistics, Delhi University, New Delhi, India.
Keywords: Carrier Borne Epidemic Model, MLE, Sampling Distribution, Consistency, Efficiency, Infection rate, Removal Rate

Abstract

A complete time-dependent carrier-borne epidemic model in the presence of more than one carrier is developed in this article. Also, the probability of survival of susceptibles for a random infectious time period is derived. Moreover, the maximum likelihood estimation (MLE) of relative infection rate is obtained which is found to be more efficient than the one obtained by Roy Sunders & Richard J Kryscio in 1976. The proposed complete time-dependent carrier-borne epidemic model gives a better explanation than the stochastic model suggested by Wiess in 1965.

How to cite this article:
Grover G, Ravi V, Deo V, Yadav CB. A Complete Time-Dependent Carrier-borne Epidemic Model. J Commun Dis. 2021;53(4):29-35.

DOI: https://doi.org/10.24321/0019.5138.202171

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Published
2021-12-31