Dynamics of Spatio-Temporal Trend and Predictability of Malaria Across India (1995– 2025)

Yogeshwar Singh  Rathore; Martand Mani Mishra; Shashi  Prakash; Anisha Choudhury; Ankita Chakraborty; Netrananda  Sahu; Anil  Kumar; Ravi  Kesharwani; Neelam  Goel

Yogeshwar Singh Rathore Department of Geography, Delhi School of Economics, University of Delhi, New Delhi, India
Martand Mani Mishra Department of Geography, Shyama Prasad Mukherji College for Women, University of Delhi, India
Shashi Prakash Department of Social Work, University of Delhi, New Delhi, India
Anisha Choudhury Department of Geography, Delhi School of Economics, University of Delhi, New Delhi, India
Ankita Chakraborty Department of Geography, Delhi School of Economics, University of Delhi, New Delhi, India
Netrananda Sahu Department of Geography, Delhi School of Economics, University of Delhi, New Delhi, India
Anil Kumar Department of Geography, Delhi School of Economics, University of Delhi, New Delhi, India
Ravi Kesharwani Department of Geography, Delhi School of Economics, University of Delhi, New Delhi, India
Neelam Goel Department of Geography, Shyama Prasad Mukherji College for Women, University of Delhi, India

Keywords: Malaria, Trends and patterns, Sen slope, Linear regression

Abstract

This study examined spatio-temporal trends and geographical distribution across Indian states on a year by year basis (1995-2025) to assess the cases of malaria using linear regression (R square) values, Modified Mann-Kendall (MMK) Z-Score Test and Sen’s slope estimates as well as maps of cumulative burden for each state. Nationally, there has been a statistically significant and monotonic decrease in malaria cases over time with considerable support from both MMK Z-Score results as well as Sen’s slope estimates. Multiple states in central, eastern and southern India with historical endemicity for malaria had high R square Values indicating that they have had stable and predictable decreases in malaria cases over time. While major northeastern states such as Arunachal Pradesh, Assam, and Manipur exhibit high R square values and significant declining trends, other specific pockets within the northeastern region (such as Meghalaya, Mizoram, and Tripura), along with Sikkim and the island regions, display low R square values and also non-significant MMK trends in some states, indicating that these localized areas continue to experience irregular, outbreak-driven transmission. The spatial clustering of malaria cases reveals a portion of the country that was once referred to as the Malaria Belt - Odisha, Chhattisgarh, Madhya Pradesh and the adjoining states - but has now shown a dramatic decline in the cases of malaria while retaining a history of having had a high cumulative burden of malaria in the past. The findings of this study demonstrate that there are multi-speed geographical transitions occurring across the country with respect to malaria. Therefore, while the national goal of malaria elimination is achievable, regionally specific vulnerabilities will remain and will require targeted, contextually relevant interventions.

DOI: https://doi.org/10.24321/0019.5138.202654

How to cite this article:
Rathore Y S, Mishra M M, Prakash S, Choudhury A, Chakraborty A, Sahu N, Kumar A, Kesharwani
R, Goel N. Dynamics of Spatio-Temporal Trend and Predictability of Malaria Across India (1995–2025). J Commun Dis. 2026;58(3):43-54.

Author Biographies

Yogeshwar Singh Rathore , Department of Geography, Delhi School of Economics, University of Delhi, New Delhi, India

Yogeshwar Singh Rathore is a Research Scholar at the Department of Geography, Delhi School of Economics, University of Delhi. His research is focused on climate change, climatic variability and their impact on vegetation and human health using vulnerability indices, statistical techniques and species distribution modelling.

Ankita Chakraborty, Department of Geography, Delhi School of Economics, University of Delhi, New Delhi, India

Dr. Ankita Chakraborty is a socio-cultural and economic researcher specializing in Intellectual Property Rights (IPR), with a focus on Geographical Indications (GI), Traditional Knowledge, Heritage economies, urban livelihoods, social vulnerability and regional development. She holds a Ph.D. in Geography from the Delhi School of Economics, University of Delhi. Currently, she is associated with the Delhi School of Economics as a Research Associate. Her research explores the intersection of culture, community, and sustainability in regional economies. Dr. Chakraborty has authored papers in reputed Scopus-indexed journals such as Human Geography and GeoJournal, with several more under review. Her collaborations include research with Dr. Martand Mani Mishra, Dr. Netrananda Sahu, Prof. Madhuri Sharma. Her academic contributions reflect a rigorous interdisciplinary approach combining qualitative inquiry with spatial analytical methods.

Netrananda Sahu, Department of Geography, Delhi School of Economics, University of Delhi, New Delhi, India

Climate Variability, Climate Change, Disaster Management, Downscaling and Modelling

Dr Netrananda Sahu, (Assistant Professor, Since 2014) holds Ph.D and Postdoctoral Degree from Kyoto University, Japan. He had his Masters and M.Phill degree from the University of Delhi. He has obtained six months Internship from International Research Institute for Climate and Society, (IRI), Columbia University, New York. Dr Sahu also has been selected for another prestigious Postdoctoral Fellowship for 2017-18 by the Ben-Gurion University, Israel (didn't avail). He has research collaborations with U.S.A., Canada,Japan, China, Brazil and Indonesia. He has introduced two new courses for the Masters program for CBCS Module. He has specialized on Climate Variability/climate change/Seasonal Forecast/Extreme Events and Disaster Risk Reduction. Dr. Sahu has 74 articles published in the International Scopus indexed Journals along with a few book chapters and other publications. He has done extensive work on Darjeeling tea from perspective of climate change.

Anil Kumar, Department of Geography, Delhi School of Economics, University of Delhi, New Delhi, India

Anil Kumar is a Research Scholar at the Department of Geography, Delhi School of Economics, University of Delhi. His research focuses on climate variability, winter warming and their impact on health using geospatial and statistical approaches. He has also published on impacts of climate change on Darjeeling tea production in India.

Ravi Kesharwani, Department of Geography, Delhi School of Economics, University of Delhi, New Delhi, India

Ravi Kesharwani is a Research Scholar at the Department of Geography, Delhi School of Economics, University of Delhi. His research explores the intersections of climate variability, agricultural sustainability, and rural livelihoods using geospatial and statistical approaches. He has published on climate impacts on crops, including studies on Darjeeling tea production and agrometeorological dynamics in India. His work emphasizes spatial analysis for equitable and sustainable agri-economic development.

References

Antinori S, Galimberti L, Milazzo L, Corbellino M. Biology of human malaria plasmodia including Plasmodium knowlesi. Mediterranean journal of hematology and infectious diseases. 2012 Mar 10;4(1):e2012013. [Google Scholar] [PubMed]

Li Q, Liu T, Lv K, Liao F, Wang J, Tu Y, Chen Q. Malaria: past, present, and future. Signal transduction and targeted therapy. 2025 Jun 17;10(1):188. [Google Scholar] [PubMed]

Basu S, Sahi PK. Malaria: an update. The Indian Journal of Pediatrics. 2017 Jul;84(7):521-8. [Google Scholar] [PubMed]

Gobbi F, Audagnotto S, Trentini L, Nkurunziza I, Corachan M, Di Perri G. Blackwater fever in children, Burundi. Emerging infectious diseases. 2005 Jul;11(7):1118. [Google Scholar] [PubMed]

Sharma R, Dutta AK. Malaria and national vector borne disease control programme. The Indian Journal of Pediatrics. 2011 Dec;78(12):1527-35. [Google Scholar] [PubMed]

Loy DE, Liu W, Li Y, Learn GH, Plenderleith LJ, Sundararaman SA, Sharp PM, Hahn BH. Out of Africa: origins and evolution of the human malaria parasites Plasmodium falciparum and Plasmodium vivax. International journal for parasitology. 2017 Feb 1;47(2- 3):87-97. [Google Scholar] [PubMed]

Bopp SE, Manary MJ, Bright AT, Johnston GL, Dharia NV, Luna FL, McCormack S, Plouffe D, McNamara CW, Walker JR, Fidock DA. Mitotic evolution of Plasmodium falciparum shows a stable core genome but recombination in antigen families. PLoS genetics. 2013 Feb 7;9(2):e1003293. [Google Scholar] [PubMed]

Baragatti M, Fournet F, Henry MC, Assi S, Ouedraogo H, Rogier C, Salem G. Social and environmental malaria risk factors in urban areas of Ouagadougou, Burkina Faso. Malaria Journal. 2009 Jan 13;8(1):13. [Google Scholar] [PubMed]

Robert E, Grippa M, Nikiema DE, Kergoat L, Koudougou H, Auda Y, Rochelle-Newall E. Environmental determinants of E. coli, link with the diarrheal diseases, and indication of vulnerability criteria in tropical West Africa (Kapore, Burkina Faso). PLoS Neglected Tropical Diseases. 2021 Aug 17;15(8):e0009634. [Google Scholar] [PubMed]

Atusingwize E, Deane K, Musoke D. Social determinants of malaria in low-and middle-income countries: a mixedmethods systematic review. Malaria Journal. 2025 May 26;24(1):165. [Google Scholar] [PubMed]