Forecasting Malaria Eradication: A Regression-Based Time Series Analysis of Malaria Cases in Odisha, India
Time series Analysis of Malaria Eradication
Abstract
Introduction: Malaria remains a significant public health challenge, particularly in tropical and subtropical regions, where it contributes considerably to global morbidity and mortality.This study aims to analyze
the incidence of Plasmodium falciparum and Plasmodium vivax malaria cases from 2010 to 2024 in Kalahandi district using regression-based time series forecasting models to evaluate progress toward malaria
elimination.
Materials and Methods: Secondary data on malaria incidence were collected from the National Centre for Vector Borne Diseases Control(NCVBDC) and the National Centre for Vector Borne Diseases Control (NCVBDC). Using Microsoft Excel and SPSS, linear regression and polynomial regression models were applied to evaluate temporal trends and forecast future caseloads of P. falciparum and P. vivax. Model performance was assessed using R² and RMSE values.
Results: From 2010 to 2024, there was a significant reduction in the number of P. falciparum and P. vivax cases in Kalahandi. Regression analysis indicated a strong negative trend in malaria incidence, with linear and polynomial models showing high R² values, suggesting good model fit. Forecasts indicate that if current trends continue, malaria cases may reach elimination targets in the near future.
Conclusion: The application of regression-based time series forecasting reveals encouraging trends toward malaria elimination in Kalahandi.
Continued investment in surveillance, vector control, and targeted interventions in high-risk populations is essential to sustain and accelerate progress. The methodology demonstrated in this study can be replicated
in other high-burden districts to guide data-driven public health planning and policy.
Keywords: Malaria, P. falciparum, P. vivax, Forecasting, Regression Analysis
DOI: https://doi.org/10.24321/0019.5138.202627
How to cite this article:
Pradhan S, Panda S R, Kund N, Hota R N, Goswami S, Palai S K. Forecasting Malaria Elimination:
A Regression-Based Time Series Analysis of Malaria Cases in Odisha, India. J Commun Dis.2026;58(2):37-46.
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