Integrated forecasting–response to climate-related public health emergencies and disasters in India

Jugal Kishore — 2026-06-17

Climate-related public health emergencies and disasters such as floods, droughts, cyclones, avalanches, heatwaves and cold waves are becoming a major cause of morbidity and mortality. A disaster is defined as “a catastrophe, mishap, calamity or grave occurrence in any area, arising from natural or man-made cause, or by accident or negligence which results in substantial loss of life or human suffering or damage to, and destruction of property, or damage to, or degradation of, environment, and is of such a nature or magnitude as to be beyond the coping capacity of the community of the affected area”.The COVID-19 pandemic, demonstrated that public health emergencies can be more destructive than conventional disasters and demand holistic integrated management. Most recently a comprehensive approach termed Public Health Emergency and Disaster Management (PHEDM) has been proposed and well recognized.

A recent evaluation of panchayat-led PHEDM in Uttarakhand demonstrated substantial and measurable improvements in community preparedness, villagers prepared their own disasters management plans, implementing risk-informed micro-planning, and progressively built capacity, community trust and ownership. These gains can be further strengthened through periodic refresher training in digital and predictive technologies, such as artificial intelligence (AI) and machine learning (ML).

Ebola Virus Disease Risk Assessment in the Indian Population: Epidemiology, Risk Factors, and Preparedness for Disease Surveillance and Public Health Response

Jugal Kishore — 2026-07-04

Despite remaining largely confined to the African continent, Ebola virus disease (EVD) continues to pose a serious global public health concern. India has yet to record a confirmed case, but the possibility of importation and the chain of transmission, could trigger demands cautious, evidence-based scrutiny.

This review synthesizes findings from peer-reviewed literature, WHO surveillance data, and international epidemiological research to examine EVD's transmission dynamics, established spillover risk factors, and the realistic probability of an outbreak occurring within India. The disease carries a case fatality rate averaging 50%, with documented extremes between 25% and 90%. Transmission occurs through direct contact with bodily fluids of symptomatic individuals, and key amplifying factors include poor infection prevention practices, unsafe burial customs, and exposure to wildlife such as fruit bats and non-human primates.

Although India’s geographic distance from traditional endemic zones and the absence of established reservoir hosts appear to mitigate immediate risk, the reality of global interconnectedness complicates this picture. High volumes of international travel, coupled with the unpredictable nature of evolving zoonotic transmission patterns, ensure that the threat of introduction remains tangible rather than theoretical. In the event of emerging cases, India’s Integrated Health Information Platform (IHIP), operating under the Integrated Disease Surveillance Programme, alongside Rapid Response Teams, would be placed under considerable operational strain. The sheer scale and speed of potential outbreaks could overwhelm existing mechanisms, exposing vulnerabilities in coordination, diagnostic reach, and response agility.

Against this backdrop, strengthening surveillance infrastructure, expanding laboratory capacity, and refining preparedness protocols cannot be dismissed as mere precautionary measures. They are indispensable pillars of national health security. Enhanced real-time data integration, robust genomic sequencing networks, and scalable rapid response units are critical to ensuring resilience. Equally important are simulation exercises, stockpiling essential medical supplies, and establishing clear communication strategies to counter misinformation. In essence, India’s preparedness must evolve from reactive containment to proactive resilience, recognizing that in a globalized era, geographic distance offers only partial protection while systemic readiness provides the true safeguard.

DOI: https://doi.org/10.24321/2455.7048.202608

How to cite this article:
Jena P K, Patel A, Kishore J. Ebola Virus Disease Risk Assessment in the Indian Population: Epidemiology, Risk Factors, and Preparedness for Disease Surveillance and Public Health Response. Epidem Int. 2026;11(2):6-12.

Epidemiology International (E-ISSN: 2455-7048)

Integrated forecasting–response to climate-related public health emergencies and disasters in India

Ebola Virus Disease Risk Assessment in the Indian Population: Epidemiology, Risk Factors, and Preparedness for Disease Surveillance and Public Health Response