Integrated forecasting–response to climate-related public health emergencies and disasters in India

Abstract

Climate-related public health emergencies and disasters such as floods, droughts, cyclones, avalanches, heatwaves and cold waves are becoming a major cause of morbidity and mortality. A disaster is defined as “a catastrophe, mishap, calamity or grave occurrence in any area, arising from natural or man-made cause, or by accident or negligence which results in substantial loss of life or human suffering or damage to, and destruction of property, or damage to, or degradation of, environment, and is of such a nature or magnitude as to be beyond the coping capacity of the community of the affected area”. The COVID-19 pandemic, demonstrated that public health emergencies can be more destructive than conventional disasters and demand holistic integrated management. Most recently a comprehensive approach termed Public Health Emergency and Disaster Management (PHEDM) has been proposed and well recognized. 

A recent evaluation of panchayat-led PHEDM in Uttarakhand demonstrated substantial and measurable improvements in community preparedness, villagers prepared their own disasters management plans, implementing risk-informed micro-planning, and progressively built capacity, community trust and ownership. These gains can be further strengthened through periodic refresher training in digital and predictive technologies, such as artificial intelligence (AI) and machine learning (ML).