The Epidemiology and Economics of the Pandemic COVID-19: Heading towards a Doomsday Syndrome-A Global Recession
Abstract
The year 2020 started with an impending disaster believed to be carried forward from China since Nov-Dec 2019 and today, virtually, no country is spared that led to the global lockdown amounting to cumulative output losses to a tune of USD 9 trillion. This paper carries out an epidemiological review of literature, attempts to simulate and replicate previous health crisis episodes and their impact on the global economy. It also analyses the concurrent events and shocks associated with the financial and economic downsides due to the global pandemic leading to a global recession, which the IMF predicts to be bigger than the Great Depression of 1930. Extensive articles from primary and secondary sources are referred to analyze the Case Fatality Ratio (CFR) and the impact of COVID-19 on the stock market trends. The paper also attempts to simulating previous shocks associated with recessions to the current situation, estimate the economic damage and concludes with possible alternatives available to governments apart from flattening the curve.
How to cite this article:
Kudligi RS. The Epidemiology and Economics of the Pandemic COVID-19: Heading towards a Doomsday Syndrome-A Global Recession. Epidem Int 2020; 5(2): 47-52.
DOI: https://doi.org/10.24321/2455.7048.202017
References
Greenfeld KT. China syndrome: The true story of the 21st century’s first great epidemic. Harper Perennial.
Ruan S. Likelihood Of Survival Of Coronavirus Disease 2019. Available from: https://www.thelancet.com/
journals/laninf/article/PIIS1473-3099(20)30257-7/fulltext [Accessed 10 April 2020].
Woo P, Huang Y, Lau S, Yuen K. Coronavirus genomics and bioinformatics analysis. Omics in Clinical Practice
; 325-348. https://doi.org/10.1201/b17137-17 [Accessed 10 April 2020].
Cyranoski D, Mystery deepens over animal source of coronavirus. Nature 2020; 579(7797): 18-19. Available
from: https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-020-00548-w.
https://www.theskepticsguide.org/podcasts, 2020. Https://Www.Theskepticsguide.Org/Podcasts.
Online F. Kumbh Mela 2019: Whopping 150 Million Expected To Attend, Greater Than Population Of 100
Countries Combined. [online] The Financial Express. 2020. Available at: <https://www.financialexpress.
com/india-news/kumbha-mela-2019-whopping-150-million-expected-to-attend-greater-than-populationof-
-countries-combined/1417572/> [Accessed 10 April 2020].
https://www.thelancet.com/journals/langlo/article/PIIS2214-109X(20)30110-8/fulltext COVID-19 in Italy:
momentous decisions and many uncertainties. Shigui Ruan. The Lancet Global Health 2020.
Lazzerini M, Putoto G. Epidemiological group of emergency response mechanism of new coronavirus
pneumonia in Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention. Epidemiological characteristics of
new coronavirus pneumonia. Chinese Journal of Epidemiology 2020; 41(2020-02-17).
Venkatesh S, Memish ZA . SARS: the new challenge to international health and travel medicine. EMHJ –
Eastern Mediterranean Health Journal 2004; 10(4-5): 655-662.
US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC). Influenza Burden, 2018-19.
Shultz JM, Espinel Z, Espinola M, Rechkemmer A. Distinguishing epidemiological features of
the 2013-2016 West Africa Ebola virus disease outbreak. Disaster Health 2016; 3(3): 78-88.
and World Health Organization (2020). Ebola virus disease: Factsheet.
Who.int. 2020. COVID-19 Situation Reports. [online] Available at: <https://www.who.int/emergencies/
diseases/novel-coronavirus-2019/situation-reports> [Accessed 14 April 2020].
Nytimes.com. 2020. China Identifies New Virus Causing Pneumonialike Illness. [online] Available at:
<https://www.nytimes.com/2020/01/08/health/chinapneumonia-outbreak-virus.html> [Accessed 10 April
.
Melinda Liu, Y., 2020. Is China Ground Zero For A Future Pandemic?. [online] Smithsonian Magazine. Available at:<https://www.smithsonianmag.com/science-nature/china-ground-zero-future-pandemic-180965213/>
[Accessed 12 April 2020].
Who.int. 2020. COVID-19 Situation Reports. [online] Available at: <https://www.who.int/emergencies/
diseases/novel-coronavirus-2019/situation-reports>[Accessed 14 April 2020].
How the recession of 2020 could happen. The New York Times - Breaking News, World News &
Multimedia. https://www.nytimes.com/2019/08/17/upshot/how-the-recession-of-2020-could-happen.html
[Accessed 05 April 2020].
Inman P. Is a global recession coming? Here are seven warning signs. the Guardian. https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2019/aug/25/is-a-global-recessioncoming-here-are-seven-warning-signs [Accessed 05 April 2020].
The great lockdown: Worst economic downturn since the Great Depression. (2020, April 14). IMF
Blog. https://blogs.imf.org/2020/04/14/the-greatlockdown-worst-economic-downturn-since-the-greatdepression/ [Accessed 15 April 2020].
What coronavirus could mean for the global economy. Harvard Business Review. https://hbr.org/2020/03/
what-coronavirus-could-mean-for-the-global-economy [Accessed 15 April 2020].
https://www.aa.com.tr/en/economy/un-body-warnsof-up-to-25m-job-losses-due-to-covid-19/1771040.
Liu S, Parilla J. What the Great Recession can tell us about the COVID-19 small business crisis. Brookings. https://www.brookings.edu/blog/the-avenue/2020/03/25/what-the-great-recession-can-tell-us-about-the-covid19-small-business-crisis/ [Accessed 12 April 2020].
Harvard Business Review, 2020. What Coronavirus Could Mean for the Global Economy. [online] Available
at: <https://hbr.org/2020/03/what-coronavirus-couldmean-for-the-global-economy> [Accessed 12 April
.
Payments B. IMF: World Economic Outlook (WEO), April 2020 - Knoema.Com. [online] Knoema 2020. Available
at: <https://knoema.com/IMFWEO2020Apr/imf-worldeconomic-outlook-weo-april-2020> [Accessed 15 April
.
