Trends and correlations of major infectious diseases in Indonesia before and after the COVID-19 pandemic: A comprehensive seven-year analysis (2017–2023)

Abstract

Background: The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic has profoundly impacted healthcare systems globally, potentially altering the epidemiological patterns of other infectious diseases. However, comprehensive analyses of these changes in Indonesia have been limited. Objective: This study aimed to investigate the trends and correlations of major infectious diseases in Indonesia before and after the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic through a seven-year surveillance period. Methods: This retrospective study analyzed national surveillance data from 2017–2023 and examined seven major infectious diseases: tuberculosis, HIV/AIDS, pneumonia, hepatitis, diarrhea, leprosy, and COVID-19. Data were obtained from the official database and provincial health offices of the Indonesian Ministry of Health. Statistical analyses included Pearson’s correlation coefficient and principal component analysis (PCA) to identify disease interaction patterns and temporal trends. Results: Significant disruptions were observed across all diseases during the peak of the pandemic (2020), with reductions ranging from 16.5% (HIV) to 35.9% (leprosy). Postpandemic recovery patterns varied substantially: tuberculosis cases more than doubled from 2021–2023 (397,377–821,200), whereas HIV/AIDS showed increasing trends, with unprecedented mortality rates increasing (1.64–22.27%). PCA revealed two principal components explaining 82.84% of the total variation, with respiratory diseases clustering distinctly from vector-borne diseases. Strong positive correlations were observed between tuberculosis and HIV (r=0.87, p=0.011), whereas COVID-19 was negatively correlated with most endemic diseases, particularly diarrhea (r=-0.77, p=0.043). Conclusions: The COVID-19 pandemic significantly disrupted Indonesia's infectious disease landscape, with varying recovery patterns, suggesting both healthcare system adaptation and persistent challenges. These findings highlight the need for strengthened surveillance systems and integrated disease management approaches in the postpandemic era, particularly for high-burden diseases, such as tuberculosis and HIV/AIDS.

How to cite this article:
Sari S M P, Utomo B, Adnyana I M D M, Sari M, Adiwinoto R P. Trends and Correlations of Major Infectious Diseases in Indonesia Before and After the COVID-19 Pandemic: A Comprehensive Seven-Year Analysis (2017–2023).J Commun Dis. 2025;57(2):150-168.

DOI: https://doi.org/10.24321/0019.5138.202551