Trend-Analysis of Dengue Cases and its relation to Vector Density in Selected Areas of Delhi State

Harsh Rajvanshi; Prakash Narayanan; Shah Hossain; AC Dhariwal

Harsh Rajvanshi Post Graduate Scholar (MPH), Department of Public Health, Manipal University, Manipal, Karnataka, India. Present - Program Officer, Malaria Elimination Demonstration Project, FDEC India, Mandla, Madhya Pradesh, India.
Prakash Narayanan Associate Professor, Department of Public Health, Manipal University, Manipal, Karnataka, India.
Shah Hossain Associate Professor, Department of Public Health, Manipal University, Manipal, Karnataka, India.
AC Dhariwal Director, National Vector Borne Disease Control Programme, New Delhi. Present - Advisor, National Vector Borne Disease Control Programme, New Delhi.

Keywords: Aedes, Cases, Dengue, Delhi, Municipal Corporation, NVBDCP, Trend-Analysis

Abstract

Background: Dengue is a mosquito borne tropical disease caused by Dengue virus. India contributes up-to 34% global cases of Dengue. India reported 111880 cases of Dengue in 2016. Delhi contributed 15.8% of total national cases in 2015 with major epidemic outbreaks in recent years. This disease has severe economic burden on the country and significantly reduces the quality of life of those affected by it.

Objective: The objective is to assess the burden of Dengue cases and Vector density in various areas of Delhi state.

Methods: Trends-charts plotted for all the areas under municipal corporation zones of Delhi with dengue cases, vector density and weather data. Priority-intervention areas were identified using Pearson-correlation from the zones. The trend was studied and interpreted.

Results: In 2016, Delhi reported a total of 4431 Dengue cases, out of which 2857 (58.24%) cases were reported originating in Delhi. Case reporting and Vector density trends were noted in various areas of Delhi. Three areas were identified as priority-intervention areas by obtaining maximum correlation between rainfall, vector density and cases.

Conclusion: Highest correlation of Vector density and Cases was observed in Civil lines area and between Rainfall and Cases in West and Najafgarh areas. There was also a gap between Vector density and Dengue cases during trends-charting in various areas of Delhi. This gap may be attributed to the IIP and EIP.

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