Application of Mathematical Modeling in Public Health Decision Making Pertaining to Control of COVID-19 Pandemic in India
Abstract
Introduction: The COVID-19 is highly infectious and possibility of spread is more, it is expecting to see large number of cases in the coming days. There is need for effective public health measures at community level including those recommended for containment and buffer zones. To achieve this, there is need for evidence based decision making at all level. Mathematical modeling can be important tool to achieve this. The objective of this research article is to sensitize public health decision makers at Centre, State and District level about application of Mathematical Modeling in decision making for prevention and control of COVID-19.
Methodology: BAILEY’S MODEL was applied on secondary data for COVID -19. In this model, the removal rate is calculated which is the percentage of removed persons in the infected population. Further, regression analysis has been done, to show the linear relationship between the total infection rate and the total recovery rate. Linking of this model with decision making has been described.
Findings: BAILEY’S MODEL described that when the number of infected is equal to the number of removed patients, the coefficient will reach 100% threshold and the epidemic will be extinguished. In this article as per the Regression Analysis (Linear) of Bailey’s Relative Removal Rate (BMRRR), COVID 19, India, it is observed that the trend reached to 100 in the month of mid of September, 2020. So it may be interpreted that at that point of time, the number of infected will be equal to the number of removed patients, and that’s why the coefficient will reach 100% threshold.
Conclusion: This a very good model to support analysis and interpretation of State/District data (whenever numbers of cases are high) and it will also help in relevant decision making in control activities of COVID 19 Pandemic. This will further help government to take long-term disease prevention and intervention programs.
How to cite this article:
Kumar A, Roy R. Application of Mathematical Modeling in Public Health Decision Making Pertaining to Control of COVID-19 Pandemic in India. Epidem Int 2020; 5(2): 23-26.
DOI: https://doi.org/10.24321/2455.7048.202013
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